2024 Holiday Season Kickoff: Why Things Are Different and What Your Brand Should Do

Why This Q4 is Going to Be Different

There are three significant reasons why this year's Q4 is going to be different from previous years:

1. Cyber Monday in December

• Calendar Shift: This year, Cyber Monday falls on December 2nd, unlike last year when it was in November. This unusual setup complicates revenue forecasting, budget allocations, and media planning.
• Adjustments Needed: We at Pigeon Digital have adjusted our spend and retention models to account for the shift. Our data team has looked at the past four years to gauge the impact of Cyber Monday occurring in December.

2. Shorter Holiday Period

• Calendar Compression:

  • Thanksgiving is later this year, leading to a shorter holiday period.
  • You'll have almost a week less between Black Friday and the last shipping day.

• Implications for Brands:

  • This requires focused messaging and offers to drive more value in a shorter time frame.
  • Early bird offers should potentially pivot around self-gifting, while Black Friday and Cyber Monday might need to focus more on gifting.

3. US Election Year Impacts

• Meta Monitoring Algorithm v.s. Political Ads:

  • The influx of political advertising will increase CPMs in the US market.
    • Australian CPM on Meta doesn’t increase heavily, but fluctuates a lot from historical data.
    • Additionally, Meta usually makes changes to the algo around this period, leading to potential fluctuation even in the Australian market.

• Strategic Planning:

  • We advise avoiding major holiday offers during the US election week.
    • Instead, concentrate efforts on Black Friday and Cyber Monday when consumers are back in shopping mode.

4. Lower Consumer Spending in 2024

• Lower inventory & freight cost: Landed cost for inventory is at an all time low. This is why I love running a business in recession
• Cost of Living crisis: Households across Australia are reducing spend heavily, reflected in offline & online channels.

Strategies to Tackle the Weird Q4

Adjusting for Cyber Monday in December

• Model Adjustments: Our teams have been tweaking spend and retention models, ensuring that forecasting takes into account Cyber Monday's shift into December.
• Revenue Allocation: By examining historical performance, we’ve adjusted revenue expectations and budget allocations to be more accurate.

Dealing with a Shorter Holiday Period

• Offer Strategy: It's crucial to adjust your offer strategy, potentially moving up your best deals to capture early shoppers.
• Media Planning: Focus ad spend strategically, capitalizing on the reduced time frame to maximise returns.

Creating a Value Offer For Your Customers

• Focus on value of money messaging
  • Competitors are doing heavy discount to get rid of 2024 inventory
  • 15% off simply won’t cut it this year
    • Prepare for 25-30% off
    • Explore different AOV-increase offer strategy
      • 33% off = “Buy 2 get 1”
        • “Buy 2 Get 1” has higher AOV

What’s Next

Here's to navigating a "weird" but potentially fruitful holiday season! Keep an eye out for our next Insights and stay ahead of the curve with Pigeon Digital.